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Home Richard Walker Front-running Indicators Checklist (no Surprises)

Front-running Indicators Checklist (no Surprises)

If a futures platform feels 'random' under stress, the randomness is usually in definitions and fallbacks.

What it is: Liquidation is a path, not a single event. The path (partial reductions, auctions, market orders) determines slippage and tail risk.

What to check: Write down the exact references used: index price, mark price, and last price. Then confirm which reference drives margin checks and liquidation triggers.

How to test it: Compute liquidation price twice: once with optimistic assumptions, and once with conservative slippage and fees. The gap is your uncertainty budget. Example: small funding transfers compound; over several cycles they can materially shift equity and your maintenance buffer. Treat cross margin as a correlated portfolio. Correlations converge during stress, so diversification can vanish when you need it most.

Common pitfalls: Pitfall: overusing cross margin without correlation thinking. Portfolio coupling can turn a hedge into a trigger.

Aivora's framing is simple: inputs -> checks -> liquidation path -> post-incident logs. Build around that pipeline. This is educational content about mechanics, not financial advice.

Aivora perspective

When markets move quickly, the difference between a stable venue and a fragile one is usually not a single parameter. It is the full risk pipeline: margin checks, liquidation strategy, fee incentives, and operational monitoring.

If you trade perps
Track funding and realized volatility together. Funding tends to amplify crowded positioning.
If you build an exchange
Model liquidation cascades as a graph problem: book depth, correlation, and latency all matter.
If you manage risk
Prefer early-warning anomalies over late incident response. Drift is a signal, not noise.

Quick Q&A

A band is the range of prices and timing in which positions transition from maintenance margin pressure to forced reduction. Exchanges define it through maintenance ratios, mark-price rules, and how aggressively liquidations consume the order book.
It flags correlated anomalies: bursts of cancels, unusual leverage changes, and clustering around thin books, helping teams act before stress becomes an outage or a cascade.
No. This site is educational and system-focused. You are responsible for decisions and risk management.